By Lawrence Delevingne and Huw Jones
(Reuters) -Global shares idled on Wednesday after a lengthy rebound propelled them towards recent lifetime highs, and as investors awaited clues on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve on Friday to decide on their next move.
Oil was steady after a run of declines driven by expectations of reduced Chinese demand, while dollar weakness on the prospect of rate cuts kept gold near Tuesday’s record high.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.25%, to 40,935, the S&P 500 gained 0.22%, to 5,609 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%, to 17,852.
The MSCI All Country index for global stocks ticked up about 0.2%, near its mid-July lifetime high and up 13.6% for the year.
In Europe, the STOXX index of 600 companies was up 0.3%, nearing its all-time high reached on June 7.
Stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride this month after investors took fright following U.S. jobs data that raised the prospect of recession in the world’s biggest economy.
Those worries have given way to bets on a soft landing cushioned by cuts in U.S. borrowing costs expected to start in September.
Preliminary revisions to U.S. labour data are due to be published after the opening bell on Wall Street. A large downward revision is expected, which would support the case for cutting interest rates.
Fed meeting minutes are also expected later on Wednesday to reinforce a dovish stance ahead of a speech from the central bank’s chair Jerome Powell on Friday.
“We expect the Fed chairman to continue to signal that a first rate cut is on the cards for September. Yet there is a chance that investors could be disappointed by the comments, if there are any references to the stickiness of inflation,” said Guy Stear, head of developed markets strategy at Amundi Investment Institute.
Interest rate futures have fully priced in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut next month, with a 1 in 3 chance of a 50 bps cut. Almost 100 bps in cuts are priced in for this year, and another 100 bps next year.
A potentially unique situation beckons with material rate cuts without a recession, unlike the backdrop for cutting borrowing costs in five of the past seven cutting cycles, said Ross Yarrow, U.S. equities managing director at investment bank Baird.
“If we get a scenario where the Fed is cutting, inflation is falling and employment continues to rise, it really does start to look like a Goldilocks scenario,” Yarrow said.
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“So I think the rebound in equities and their prospects from here are actually pretty good,” Yarrow said.
Markets may still be constrained, said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“We see markets are range-bound until after the November elections,” Samana wrote in an email.
WALMART SELLS JD.COM STAKE
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.38%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.7% with JD.com dropping 8.7% as top shareholder Walmart moved to sell its large stake.
Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.3% as a recovery from its collapse in early August runs into resistance around the 38,000 level.
The falling dollar has spurred gold to record highs and returned the yen to 145.63 per dollar, a gain of nearly 3% so far this month following last month’s 38-year trough.
The euro is also up nearly 3% for August to date and, at $1.111, is at its highest since early December. [FRX/]
The mood kept bond markets supported and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were little changed at 3.801%.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, regaining some ground after steady sell-offs. U.S. crude gained 0.57% to $73.58 a barrel and Brent rose to $77.58 per barrel, up 0.49% on the day.
Dalian iron ore prices climbed more than 4% after a Bloomberg report that China plans to allow local governments to buy unsold homes in the latest property-market support measure.
China is the world’s biggest steel consumer and markets are sensitive to any signs that construction there could revive.
Gold prices hovered around $2,500 an ounce, just below record levels touched on Tuesday.
(Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston and Huw Jones in London; additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore. Editing by Kim Coghill, Bernadette Baum, Christina Fincher and Barbara Lewis)
